Hezbollah’s Next Target May Be Tel Aviv

There is almost a certainty, hanging in the thick air of Israeli destruction of south Lebanon and its terrorist pager attack, to include killing top Hezbollah commanders, that Hezbollah’s next target may be Tel Aviv. After firing a barrage of Fadi-1 and Fadi-2 rockets able to reach Haifa, Tel Aviv is the next psychological target of choice when Netanyahu escalates his war against south Lebanon, as expected.

More specifically, Hezbollah may target the defense department of the State of Israel, the private apartment of Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, or the Israeli Knesset. Even if it fails to penetrate the Iron Dome, Israelis are going to go into a panic mode. Never, in its 76 years of history, has any outside country been able to bomb Israeli cities almost unimpeded.

When Israel assassinated the top echelon of Hezbollah’s leadership on September 20, it invited Hezbollah to assassinate the top echelon of the Israeli government leadership too.

In yesterday’s barrage of rockets reaching over 100 km inside Israel, Israel’s Iron Dome performed far better than previously because it deliberately ignored to intercept the barrage of the shorter-range Katyusha rockets. The ones Hezbollah uses to deplete the missile defense system of its arsenal before it launches drones it can reach certain targets.

During the night attack of September 21, Israel waited until Hezbollah fired the longer range missiles before it activated its Iron Dome interceptors.

Nonetheless, a few Fadi-1 (80 km range) and Fadi-2 missiles (103 km range) reached northern Haifa to cause damage to the Israeli Rafael electronics complex, which Hezbollah believes was involved in the pager’s act of terror, as well as the Ramat David air force base. The latter is responsible for all the attacks on south Lebanon.

It is hard to believe that Iran’s military experts did not plan for the scenario that unfolded the night of September 21.

DOES HEZBOLLAH HAVE A BETTER STRATEGY?

From Hezbollah’s perspective, which fired about 100 longer range missiles at Israel, the results are dismal. Only a handful were able to land on, or possibly near, their targets. From Israel’s perspective, its defense system worked as it was supposed to.

The question to ask after yesterday’s attack on Haifa is whether Hezbollah has a better strategy, or mode of operations, to defeat Israel’s Iron Dome and actually cause the kind of damage on Israel that Israel is causing on Hezbollah. If it does not, Hezbollah is at the mercy of Israeli air superiority, which might not win the war for Israel, but will turn south of Lebanon into another Gaza.

It is hard to believe that Iran’s military experts did not plan for the scenario that unfolded the night of September 21. Whether Hezbollah has a response to cause real damage to the Israeli military remains to be seen. Barring a good strategy, Lebanon must brace for Netanyahu to punish its citizens the way he punished those of Gaza.

The man is a bona fide war criminal.

One thing for certain, Israeli settlers are not about to return to their homes anytime soon. As we speak, Iran, via Syria, is restocking Hezbollah’s arsenal and losses due to Israeli bombing.

It [Hezbollah’s missiles reaching deep into Israel] might also create the kind of internal panic for Israelis to start abandoning the Zionist dream, now much of it is a nightmare.

ISRAEL IS INVITING YEMEN AND IRAQ TO ATTACK

In the latest salvo, Iraq participated by attacking targets inside Israel that no one is sure they were successful. But Israeli continued genocide in Gaza is also inviting Iraq and Yemen to attack from all sides.

In addition to Hezbollah and the pro-Iranian militias, we suspect that Yemen might join the fight as well by dispatching missiles and drones to create the kind of discord and panic that would set the Israelis against each other. The country is already on the brink of social collapse, and a few hundred missiles and drones might just create the spark for even more social unrest, and more chaos.

A big test for Israeli fragility is on the horizon.

We also suspect, since Israel is seeking an all-out war against Hezbollah, that Iran might also get into the act to shore up its proxies. Retaliation for the assassination of Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran remains a high priority for the Mullahs in Tehran. No one should expect the physical damage to be paralyzing by any measure of warfare tactics, but the psychological damage will be enormous. A multi-front attack that could rain some fire on Israel might teach Netanyahu and his extremist government a much-needed lesson in humility.

It might also create the kind of internal panic for Israelis to start abandoning the Zionist dream, now much of it is a nightmare.

Hezbollah’s Next Target May Be Tel Aviv