If a War Breaks Out Between Hezbollah and Israel

From all the events unfolding in the Middle East between Iran, and its proxy Hezbollah, and Israel, two facts have become quite obvious: 1) Netanyahu wants to spark a war with Iran for the U.S. to fight on Israel’s behalf and, 2) Because Iran helped Russia in Ukraine, Russia would pay the favor back against Israel. If a war breaks out between Hezbollah and Israel, you can rest assured that it would not only involve thousands of Iranian missiles fired at Israel, but it will also drag Russia in to defend Hezbollah.

Iran, after all, came to Russia’s aid in Ukraine, and Vladimir Putin would not hesitate to return the favor. How, becomes the 64,000 dollar question.

Russia could assist logistically, as well as offer the valuable use of its satellites to pass real-time intelligence to Hezbollah in Lebanon. It could also deploy its own missile defense system that would pause a danger to the Israeli Air Force.

If Hezbollah and Iran do not first neutralize that Israeli Air Force, or at least cause it enough damage to limit its capacity to harm the Lebanese civilians, à la Gaza.

If it was not for Egypt blocking Hamas from re-arming and Jordan blocking all access to weapons for the West Bank, Israel would not be able to survive a war of attrition.

A CORRIDOR OF ENDLESS WEAPONS AND MISSILES

One of the reasons Israel has been able to destroy Gaza so easily lies behind the fact that Hamas’ access to real weapons to defend Gaza is non-existent. Every rocket and missile Hamas launched at Israel is home-made.

One of the on-the-grounds advantages Hezbollah can boast, which is immeasurably important for its military advantage over Israel, is its access to a long corridor of endless weapons and missiles, between Tehran and Lebanon, passing by Iraq and Syria. In other words, unlike Hamas, which Egypt contains in the south, and the West Bank, which Jordan contains in the North, such impediments do not exist for Hezbollah.

No one country can block arming Hezbollah, and any war between Hezbollah and Israel would be like playing a game of chess. Each party is going to lose many pieces before an outcome is clear, and Israel can ill-afford to lose too many pieces. Neither its economy nor its negative standing in the world public opinion would endure a long and devastating war with Hezbollah.

As far as an invasion, Israel better have an iron clad plan to win because Hezbollah is well-prepared to inflict much pain on Israel if the latter just marched across the Lebanese borders.

Israel’s apartheid against the Palestinians in the south and the north, with help from Egypt and Jordan, gives Israel a definite edge over winning its war against Gaza or the West Bank. The same is not true for Lebanon.

A BIG WAR MAY BE COMING

Ever since the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 2006, Iran has been preparing for another war with Israel. In the skies and on the ground. Furthermore, the Gaza Genocide is helping Iran with its message of how dangerous Israel has become in the Middle East for all Arabs and Muslims.

A message that is overwhelmingly convincing the Arab street that another much bigger war is just around the corner. It wants one to punish Israel for its terror.

If it was not for Egypt blocking Hamas from re-arming and Jordan blocking all access to weapons for the West Bank, Israel would not be able to survive a war of attrition. Not when both Palestinian sides have free access to weapons. Both Egypt and Jordan are peace partners with Israel, and have committed to defending the country, even with its level of violence against the women and children of Gaza.

Israel’s apartheid against the Palestinians in the south and the north, with help from Egypt and Jordan, gives Israel a definite edge over winning its war against Gaza or the West Bank.

The same is not true for Lebanon.

If a war breaks out with Hezbollah, Israel will not survive it. Not after the lessons Hezbollah learned from the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 2006.

IF A WAR BREAKS OUT BETWEEN HEZBOLLAH AND ISRAEL, IRAN WOULD DESTROY ISRAEL

Although Israel enjoys air superiority, Hezbollah claims it has managed to accumulate one million rockets and missiles in the last 20 years, all aimed at Israel in preparation for another war. With such an arsenal, air superiority and air defenses could only damage so many missile sites before Hezbollah overwhelms their defenses and turn Israeli military infrastructures to ashes.

This is why the United States is hesitating from an all-out war with Iran. It knows that its open access to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Assad of Syria, and the pro-Iran militias in Iraq cannot possibly be stopped by air superiority alone.

Just imagine a scenario where half a million pro-Iran fighters rush Israel from Lebanon, Syria, and even Jordan. All at the same time. Israel would succumb and pay a very dear price then. Not the US fleet in the Mediterranean nor Israel’s F-35s would be able to stop such a huge wave of fighters.

NEW U.S. WEAPONS TO PROTECT ISRAEL

This is why the United States is building low-cost drones it could employ in the thousands to stop such an advantage. However, those capabilities are a long way from production.

Today, if a war breaks out with Hezbollah, Israel will not survive it. Not after the lessons Hezbollah learned from the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 2006. In addition to the lessons that Hezbollah learned from Israeli tactics and limitations in fighting Hamas.

The Iranians are just too smart to let Israel win, and Israel knows a war with the Ayatollahs would be vastly different from a war with an enemy without real weapons to defend its people with.

If a War Breaks Out Between Hezbollah and Israel